The Australian Bureau of Statistics will announce the Domestic Trade Balance for August today at 11:30. The consensus forecast is for a deficit of A$ 2.65 billion. The Bureau reported a trade gap of A$ 3.19 billion in June of this year, an increase of 32% from the A$ 2.42 billion deficit reported in May.
The domestic trade balance has not printed a surplus since May of 2014 with a record high deficit of A$ 4.43 billion reported in April of 2015.
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The RBA held overnight interest rates unchanged at 1.50% on Tuesday but expressed concern that a rising AUD/USD could dampen economic growth and cause the trade balance to widen further. We expect a larger than consensus reading could weaken the AUD/USD, support local ASX stocks, and increase the RBA’s easing bias into the end of the year.
