AGL

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on AGL

AGL Energy is a yield story (@ 5.9%) which is supported by improving cash flow.

  • Operating Free Cash Flow: $850 million, up +60% YoY.
  • Dividends: Total FY26 dividend of 50 cents per share (Final dividend of 26 cps, fully franked).

FY27 Earnings Guidance & Outlook

Looking into FY27, management provided the following guidance:

  • Expected Underlying EBITDA: $1.9 billion – $2.2 billion.
  • Expected Underlying NPAT: $470 million – $670 million.
  • Dividend Payout Ratio Target: 55% – 60% of underlying profit (fully franked).

CBA

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on CBA

Commonwealth Bank of delivered a respectable 2H26 result, with strong balance sheet growth, stable margins and lower-than-expected impairments supporting a modest earnings beat. However, mortgage applications have fallen 15% since the Budget, while increasing competition could pressure future growth and margins.

The key concern remains valuation. CBA trades at around 26x earnings and a 50–70% premium to peers, leaving limited room for disappointment despite the solid result.

Macquarie Tech

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Macquarie Technology Group

Full-Year FY26 Consensus Forecast: Analysts expect full-year FY26 revenue in the range of A$380M – A$390M, representing a year-over-year revenue growth of roughly 3% to 5% compared to FY25

Valuation & Comparative Context

  • Trailing P/E (TTM): ~48.5x – 50.7x (based on recent reported 12-month net profit).
  • Why the Forward P/E expand relative to Trailing: Net profit after tax (NPAT) is temporarily compressed in the near term due to significant growth capital expenditures—specifically heavy ongoing investments into data centre capacity (e.g., IC3 SuperWest) and increased depreciation/financing costs.

EV/EBITDA Multiple: Shares trade at a forward EV/EBITDA of approximately 17.5x – 18.0x, reflecting strong underlying EBITDA cash flow performance relative to net bottom-line profit.